SUNSET BEACH, Oahu/Hawaii (Monday, November 25, 2013) - The waiting period for the second jewel of the Vans Triple Crown of Surfing kicked off today with the Vans World Cup at the iconic venue of Sunset Beach. This event represents the final ASP Prime contest of the 2013 season, playing a vital role for many surfers’ qualification campaigns for next season’s ASP WCT as well as the coveted Triple Crown title. Surfline.com, official forecasters for the Vans Triple Crown of Surfing, have given a detailed breakdown on what to expect during this season’s Sunset waiting period.
BRIEF OVERVIEW: A new pulse of decent size NW swell shows by Tuesday the 26th with overhead sets at Sunset and easterly Trades. That swell eases through mid week, but a possible large NW swell may charge the North Shore by Friday the 29th. Conditions over the second half of the new week are still suspect at this time, as a front moves into the region.
MONDAY 25th: Transition day between swells, biggest early and late SWELL/SURF: Old NNW swell eases, while a new NW swell builds in (mainly over the PM). Look for chest-head high occasional overhead sets at Sunset (4-6′ occasional 7′ faces) in the early morning. Surf will gradually decline through the morning and into the early afternoon, but look for chest-head high occasional overhead sets to show before dark off the new building NW energy. WIND: Light+ easterly wind in the early morning, but expect moderate to breezy ENE Trades to gradually rise up through the morning and into the afternoon. Partly cloudy/sunny skies.
TUESDAY 26th: Decent size NW swell, overhead sets and easterly Trades SWELL/SURF: New NW swell holds through the morning, offering sets mainly around head high to a few feet overhead for Sunset (5-8′+ faces), occasional bigger waves/peaks pushing up to double overhead (9-10′ on the face). This energy will ease slowly over the afternoon and night. WIND: Light+ easterly wind in the early morning, but expect moderate to breezy ENE Trades to gradually rise up through the morning and into the afternoon. Partly cloudy/sunny skies.
WEDNESDAY 27th: Easing surf SWELL/SURF: Easing NW swell. Biggest early with chest-head high occasional overhead sets at Sunset (4-6′ occasional 7′ faces). Surf will gradually decline through the day. WIND: Light to moderate ESE wind. Partly to mostly cloudy skies.
THURSDAY 28th: Small-scale early, but picking up, biggest late SWELL/SURF: The morning will start off with surf around head high or less, as the old NW energy continues to fade. However, we’re watching for a possible new/solid NW swell to steadily build in through the day (primarily over Thursday night), potentially with head-overhead sets showing before dark off this fresh energy. Still pending development. WIND: Light ESE veering SE wind. Mostly cloudy skies.
FRIDAY 29th: Possible large NW swell topping out SWELL/SURF: Possible large NW swell peaks, potentially delivering well overhead to XL surf across the North Shore. Plenty of double-triple overhead+ waves will show for Sunset with the larger sets running 15-20′+ on the face. Still pending development. WIND: Light+ variable southerly wind. Mostly cloudy skies with good chance for rain showers.
Another complex storm recently developed over the northwestern rim of the Pacific and tracked eastward into the central NPAC. This system setup a fetch for Hawaii that packed wind speeds up to 30-40kts or so, which will deliver a decent size pulse of NW swell (315-335 deg) that will build in over Monday (mainly over the PM hours) and peak at night. Look for chest-head high occasional overhead sets to show at Sunset off this fresh energy before dark. The swell will hold through Tuesday morning with sets mainly around head high up to a few feet overhead, with occasional waves/peaks pushing up to double overhead. This energy will be easing later Tuesday afternoon through mid week, but still offering chest-overhead waves on Wednesday morning.
Further out; forecast models continue to agree that the new developing low that recently pushed off Kamchatka will gradually intensify while tracking into the central NPAC over the next couple days or so, coming within close proximity to the Islands. If this continues to stay on track, then a large and fairly consistent NW swell (310-330 deg) will charge the North Shore on Friday the 29th (with well overhead to XL surf), building in rapidly through late Thursday the 28th. Stay posted for updates, still pending development.
Beyond that; watching for another winter storm system to gradually push off Asia and into the Northwest Pacific over the second half of next week, potentially delivering a pulse of NW swell for around Dec 4th-6th. Keep in mind that this is still several days out from possibly developing.
High pressure will continue to extend over Hawaii through the first half of the week; offering moderate to breezy easterly Trades (lightest in the early mornings) through Tuesday, as well as generally partly cloudy/mostly sunny skies for the beaches. Gradual decreasing East veering ESE-SE wind is expected over Wed/Thurs, as a front approaches the Islands from the NW. We’re expecting the front to move into the region by the end of the workweek, bringing variable wind and a good chance for rain showers. Exact wind conditions are still uncertain at this time, as that will depend greatly on the progress of the front. Stay tuned.